The Thailand SET broke its sixth straight week of losses and closed at 1,532.23, a gain of 2.48% for the week. The trading volume on the last trading day of the quarter was 52.9 billion shares, or about five times the 50-day average trading volume, according the Wall Street Journal. The unusually high trading volume could have been due to the end-of-quarter window dressing activities by mutual fund and portfolio managers.

For those who are not familiar with the “window dressing” strategy, here is how it works. Mutual fund and portfolio managers will sell stocks with large losses and purchase high flying stocks near the end of the quarter to improve the appearance of their portfolio and fund performance. These securities are then reported to clients or mutual fund holders as part of the fund's holdings.

Institutionals and proprietary trading firms might have seen the 1484.91 level as a tradable low and stepped in. On Thursday, the Thailand SET broke out the key trendline resistance of the falling wedge as the bullish trend reversal Hammer candlestick was confirmed by both volume and price. Technically, the projected price for the falling wedge breakout event is 1,591, if the fundamentals and investor sentiment shifts towards bullish.

There were two pieces of good Thai economic data reported on Monday. The Thailand Industry Ministry said that factory output in February rose 3.55% from a year earlier, beating expectations for a 23rd straight month of contraction. The Thailand Finance Ministry said that the number of tourist arrivals in February was 2.69 million, 29.6% more than a year earlier. January's number rose 16.3%. Tourism makes up the about 10% of the Thailand GDP.

There is a caveat about these tourists as explained to Bloomberg by Thanavath Phonvichai, economist at the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce, "We are see rising tourist arrivals, but most of them are Chinese, who don't spend much." 

The Thailand SET apparently shrugged off weak economic news from the U.S. on Wednesday, including the ADP payrolls report and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing reports. ADP, a private payroll processor, said that businesses added 189,000 jobs in March, far short of the economists’ forecast for a gain of 225,000 jobs. The manufacturing ISM for March printed at 51.5%, missing the expectations of 52.0%. In plain English, manufacturing in the U.S. stalled in March.

The 10-year Thailand Government bond yield inched another 1.80% lower this week to close at 2.73% on Friday, despite a surge in the Thailand SET. The yield of the 10-year Thailand Government bond quoted as low as 2.62% on Friday. Typically, investors buy bonds to secure cash flow and to reduce their risks in the stock market, which then drives the bond yield lower. 

From the technical viewpoint, the Thailand SET’s next move could be towards the 200-day SMA at around the 1,548 level. A successful breakout of the key moving averages could send the Thailand SET towards 1,591, the projected price for a falling wedge breakout event. There is a major head resistance at 1,539, the neck line of the head-and-shoulders pattern that needs to be broken first. 

The major headline risk for Monday is the U.S. Labor Department report, which said on Friday that employers added just 126,000 workers in March with the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.5 percent. It was a huge miss as economists expected nonfarm payrolls to rise 245,000. The way that the market will respond on Monday is anybody’s guess, as the U.S. and European markets were closed on Friday due to the Good Friday holiday.