THAILAND SET

Thailand SET

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Fri Sep 5, 2014

Thai Baht / EUR exchange rate is at a 52-week high. 

With a flood of “cheap money” being injected into the system, we see the SET index break-out from the rising wedge and retesting the 1600 and 1650 levels, respectively. Just a reminder, the term “cheap money” is money that can be borrowed at low or zero interest rates. The cheaper the money, the faster it can move through the financial system. 

We would like to cut it short here as I already posted quite a lot of important financial news and comments throughout the week on FB. 

- Scenario for SET 2100: Forget about the SET 1650. There are indicators that the SET could run up to 2100. 

(i) Cup and handle chart formation. (ii) P/E Expansion where P/E is price/earnings. In a bull market with P/E expansion, investors (bulls) are willing to pay increasingly more for each Baht of corporate earnings. In other words, there are no fundamentals to the current upside. However, the stock market is a forward looking mechanism, meaning investors always look months or years ahead and stock prices are adjusted according to anticipation of future earnings. 

Bottom line, it might not be a good idea to always look in the rear view mirror when investing in the stock market.

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