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Internet Stocks: Frenzy or the Real Thing?

Nancy G. Wai
Staff Researcher  Infotix Systems, Inc. - 
January 29, 1999

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The stock prices of Internet companies including America Online Inc. (AOL), Amazon.com

and Yahoo Inc. have been on a steep rise and experts are debating whether these stocks will move up even higher or whether it's time for investors to move their money off the table.

America Online's market capitalization of $73 billion has exceeded that of Time Warner Inc., the conglomerate giant which owns Warner Bros., HBO, the CNN Cable News Network, Turner Entertainment. Who would imagine that Yahoo Inc., an Internet web-naviation and content provider, could be worth more than a company such as Boeing, the world's largest commercial and

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military airplane manufacturer with a market capitalization of $35 billion? Amazon.com, which becomes the Internet's biggest bookstore in less than five years, has an estimated market capitalization of over $20 billion...seven times larger than Barnes and Noble!

Whether this exponential rise in Internet stock prices could be "the halo effect of these dot-com stocks'' as suggested by analyst Ashok Kumar of Piper Jaffray Inc. in a Bloomberg interview, or the result of the "Day Traders' effect", everyone seems to agree that Internet communications and e-commerce are here to stay and will grow even larger. There is no doubt that intense competition in business models and technology will drive small Internet companies to consolidate or fade out.

The premier Internet service, web-navigation and content providers such as AOL and Yahoo recognize that company profitability can be maintained only when additional revenue, for example from the e-commerce, is generated.   Membership or advertisement fees alone might be not sufficient to offset the high costs of building systems big enough to handle the traffic. However, both AOL and Yahoo may soon be facing tough competition from new rivals such as @Home Network and AltaVista.

@Home Network, a leading provider of high-speed Internet services via cable infrastructures to both residences and businesses, is looking for big expansion and could become a tidal wave for AOL. According to @Home, its peak speed can be over 100 times faster than traditional dial-up phone lines.

Although AOL, under an agreement with Bell Atlantic Corp., will start offering digital subscriber line access to AOL customers on the Bell Atlantic area network, AOL customers in certain parts of the nation are still not able to access the Internet at 56 KBPS, which is the standard data transfer rate of modems in PCs.

To make things even more complicated for AOL, @Home has already reached affiliate agreements with 18 leading cable companies worldwide including Tele-Communications, Inc. (TCI) which has an interest in @Home Network. The pressure on AOL to improve their service could intensify when the merger between @Home and Excite is complete and AT&T Broadband Services, which was founded as a result of a merger between TCI and AT&T Corp., begins its operation in mid-1999. Excite will add a complete line of services including web navigation and e-commerce to @Home's site while the new AT&T Broadband Services will provide a 100-fold increase in @Home's capacity which will enable @Home to support up to 5 million broadband users or half of  AOL current members.

Compaq, with nearly 13 million PC's shipped world-wide last year, had an already well-planned "dot.com" venture before announcing the spin-off of AltaVista to a separate entity. With an "Internet-Ready" keyboard, Compaq's owners can completely bypass AOL's and Yahoo's service to the AltaVista site for content, search engines, online shopping and more. In a recent

interview with Bloomberg, Rod Schrok, the AltaVista CEO, stated "Take Yahoo! and Amazon.com and put them together and that is what we want to be,''. Mr. Schrock added, "We will achieve the revenue scale of Amazon, but have a 10 percent gross margin advantage.''

As long as the battlefield on the World Wide Web is unclear, Internet stocks will continue to be volatile in the next few years. Internet companies need to continue to make huge investments to develop web infrastructure in order to attract new users and maintain their current users. As part of growth, a consolidation in the Internet companies will continue in order to cut operating costs and increase web visitors.

Due to rapid growth and consolidation, Internet companies are not expected to show a profit soon and hence there are no means to evaluate Internet stocks using the traditional price-to-earnings (PE) or price-to-earnings growth ratios.   Justification for the rich-valuation of Internet stocks should be based upon company prospectives, for example, when the company can realistically become profitable and how the company improves their earnings growth, and not speculation that the company could be worth three to five times today's value.  It is this speculation for consolidation and mergers that may further drive up stock values of Internet companies.

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About NMS Research Analysis: NMS Research Analysis is a service of Infotix Systems, offering in-depth research analysis of high-tech companies and emerging technology in sectors ranging from semiconductors, biotech, nanotechnology, IT hardware and data storage to wireless, Internet and consumer electronics.