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Nancy
G. Wai
Staff Researcher Infotix
Systems, Inc. - January 29, 1999
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The stock prices of Internet companies including America
Online Inc. (AOL), Amazon.com
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and Yahoo Inc. have been on a steep rise and experts are
debating whether these stocks will move up even higher or whether it's time for investors
to move their money off the table.
America Online's market capitalization of $73 billion has exceeded that of Time Warner
Inc., the conglomerate giant which owns Warner Bros., HBO, the CNN Cable News Network,
Turner Entertainment. Who
would imagine that Yahoo Inc., an Internet web-naviation and content provider, could be
worth more than a company such as Boeing, the world's largest commercial and
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airplane manufacturer with a market capitalization of $35 billion? Amazon.com, which becomes the Internet's biggest bookstore in less
than five years, has an estimated market capitalization of over $20 billion...seven times
larger than Barnes and Noble!
Whether this exponential rise in Internet stock prices could
be "the halo
effect of these dot-com stocks'' as suggested by analyst Ashok Kumar of Piper Jaffray Inc.
in a Bloomberg interview, or the result of the "Day Traders' effect", everyone seems to agree
that Internet communications and e-commerce are here to stay and will grow even
larger. There is no doubt that intense competition in business models and technology
will drive small Internet companies to consolidate or fade out.
The premier Internet service, web-navigation and content providers such as AOL and Yahoo
recognize that company profitability can be maintained only when additional revenue, for
example from the e-commerce, is generated. Membership or advertisement fees alone
might be not sufficient to offset the high costs of building systems big enough to handle
the traffic. However, both AOL and Yahoo may soon be facing tough competition from new
rivals such as @Home Network and AltaVista.
@Home Network, a leading provider of high-speed Internet services via cable
infrastructures to both residences and businesses, is looking for big expansion and could
become a tidal wave for AOL. According to @Home, its peak speed can be over 100 times
faster than traditional dial-up phone lines.
Although AOL, under an
agreement with Bell
Atlantic Corp., will start offering digital subscriber line access to AOL customers on the
Bell Atlantic area network, AOL customers in certain parts of the nation are still not
able to access the Internet at 56 KBPS, which is the standard data transfer rate of modems
in PCs.
To make things even more complicated for AOL, @Home has already reached affiliate
agreements with 18 leading cable companies worldwide including Tele-Communications, Inc.
(TCI) which has an interest in @Home Network. The pressure on AOL to improve their service
could intensify when the merger between @Home and Excite is complete and AT&T
Broadband Services, which was founded as a result of a merger between TCI and AT&T
Corp., begins its operation in mid-1999. Excite will add a complete line of services
including web navigation and e-commerce to @Home's site while the new AT&T Broadband
Services will provide a 100-fold
increase in @Home's capacity which will enable @Home to support up to 5 million broadband
users or half of AOL current members.
Compaq, with nearly 13 million PC's shipped
world-wide last year, had an already well-planned "dot.com" venture before
announcing the spin-off of AltaVista to a separate entity. With an
"Internet-Ready" keyboard, Compaq's owners can completely bypass AOL's and
Yahoo's service to the AltaVista site for content, search engines, online shopping and
more. In a recent |
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interview
with Bloomberg, Rod Schrok, the AltaVista CEO, stated
"Take Yahoo! and Amazon.com and put them together and that is what
we want to be,''. Mr. Schrock added, "We will achieve the revenue scale of Amazon,
but have a 10 percent gross margin advantage.''
As long as the battlefield on the World Wide Web is unclear, Internet stocks will continue
to be volatile in the next few years. Internet companies need to continue to make huge
investments to develop web infrastructure in order to attract new users and maintain their
current users. As part of growth, a consolidation in the Internet companies will continue
in order to cut operating costs and increase web visitors.
Due to rapid growth and consolidation, Internet companies are not expected to show a
profit soon and hence there are no means to evaluate Internet stocks using the traditional
price-to-earnings (PE) or price-to-earnings growth ratios. Justification for the
rich-valuation of Internet stocks should be based upon company
prospectives, for example,
when the company can realistically become profitable and how the company improves their
earnings growth, and not speculation that the company could be worth three to five
times today's value. It is this speculation for consolidation and mergers that may
further drive up stock values of Internet companies.
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About
NMS Research Analysis:
NMS Research Analysis is a service of Infotix Systems, offering
in-depth research analysis of high-tech companies and emerging
technology in sectors ranging from semiconductors, biotech,
nanotechnology, IT hardware and data storage to wireless, Internet
and consumer electronics.
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