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| Cutting
Edge Solar Cell Technology: The Fast-Growing Trend in a Slow Global Economy |
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Ed Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Chief Technology Officer, Infotix
Systems, Inc. - January
5,
2009
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The Annual Energy Outlook
2009, issued by the Energy Information Agency
(EIA), forecasts an
eleven-fold increase in domestic electricity generation from
grid-based photovoltaics (PV) from 2.04 billion
kilowatt-hours (kWh) this year to 22.51 billion
kWh by 2030. The EIA expects a slight increase in the average
electricity cost from 9 cents
per kW to about 10.5 per kW in 2030.
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Despite
a forecast of strong growth ahead, solar PV power will become
one of the cost-competitive sources of energy in the United
States when the gap
between the solar PV power cost of about
20 to 50 cents per kWh,
and the average grid-based electricity cost is closed.
According the
U.S. Department
of Energy (DOE), renewable energies,
including wind and concentrating solar power (CSP), in
utility-scale grid-connected applications are already
producing electricity at a cost below 5 and 12 cents per
kW, respectively. The Race is On - Silicon-based
conventional PV modules
are the
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core of the solar PV power
market with over 90 percent of worldwide market share.
Although the average cost of silicon-based modules is about 30
percent higher than that of thin film modules, the silicon
solar PV systems
show less degradation of performance over time and require
a smaller
footprint
area than that of the thin film modules. If the
installation cost, which runs between $4 and $5 per watt or about 50
percent of the total cost, is considered, the gap between
the total cost of the
silicon-based and thin film solar systems reduces to less than 15
percent.
In an article "A Solar Grand
Plan" published in Scientific American by Ken
Zweibel, president of
Golden, Colorado-based PrimeStar Solar, and co-authors, it
is suggested that the
cost of commercial solar module systems, including installation, needs to
come down to about $1.20 per watt so that large
solar concentrator power plants can provide solar electricity at competitive and affordable prices. Mr.
Zweibel, et al believe that 35 percent of the U.S.
total energy supply could come from solar power by
2050. PrimeStar
Solar, which its majority equity is owned by Atlanta,
Georgia-based GE Energy, a diversified
global energy infrastructure division of
General Electric [NYSE:GE], is a small
manufacturer of high performance cadmium telluride (CdTe)
thin film PV modules.
It is much easier said than done since the average retail
price of solar modules, excluding the cost of installation at the
point of use, as surveyed by a San Francisco,
California-based research and
consulting firm Solarbuzz,
has held steady at around $4.80
per watt since May 2006. According
to Phoenix,
Arizona-based First
Solar [NASDAQ:FSLR],
the long-term contract prices for 2009 of their commercial modules, or "factory-gate" prices,
is about a €1.54 ($2.08 equivalent) per watt. It is
very conceivable that the total cost of a commercial
module system still needs to come down more than 50
percent
in order to meet the $1.20 per watt benchmark.
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Startup
companies such as San Jose, California-based Nanosolar,
which deploys high yield printing technology in its solar module manufacturing process, claims to be the first company
capable of profitably selling solar panels for as
little as $0.99 per watt. MIT spin-off 1366 Techologies, is touting a new cell
architecture that uses innovative, low-cost
fabrication methods to increase the efficiency of
multi-crystalline silicon solar cells at a cost of just $1 per
watt. With a looming over-supply
of solar modules and delayed orders due to a tight credit market,
investment
strategies in the solar sector
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require near-term risk
assessment. Module
manufacturers with sustainable long-term growth
strategies, strong cash positions, low debt/equity ratio,
low
cost-per-watt
cutting edge manufacturing processes and
diversified
solar PV technology portfolios should outperform the
overall clean-energy market if crude oil prices and the
pressure to reduce green house gas emissions
are trending upward.
Silicon-Based
Technology (SBT) - The key advantages of
silicon-based technology are the abundance of starting
materials, an in-depth understanding of silicon properties and
the robust manufacturing process, developed earlier
by the microelectronics industry. One of the drawbacks is the long energy
payback time (EPBT), defined as the length of
deployment required for a photovoltaic system to
generate an amount of energy equal to the total energy
that went into its production.
Another drawback is the
high cost
of the starting silicon material, which accounts for about
40 percent of the final module cost. To address this
issue, advanced processes for the manufacturing and handling of ultra
thin solar silicon wafers to reduce the production cost
of silicon solar cells are being pursued.
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About the Author: Dr. Ed Wijaranakula is presently the
Chief Technology Officer at Infotix Systems, Inc. Prior to Infotix Systems, he has worked with
Intel, Hewlett-Packard, Micron, Motorola and Texas Instruments and has held senior as well
as managerial positions in semiconductor manufacturing companies. He has published over 80
technical papers and holds more than 12 U.S. and foreign patents. Dr.
Wijaranakula's portfolio does not hold any positions in any of the
financial products mentioned in the article.
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